THE BOX SCORE

Expected Points Added for QB Evaluation

Context-neutral quarterback performance measurement

By Nick1 min read

Thesis

Traditional QB stats like passer rating and yards per attempt are contaminated by game script, receiver quality, and offensive line support. EPA per dropback isolates quarterback contribution independent of context.

Hypothesis

QBs ranking in the top-10 for EPA per dropback in year N will produce top-12 fantasy QB finishes in year N+1 at a higher rate than QBs selected based on raw yardage or touchdown totals.

Data

This week's EPA/dropback leader
Not yet tracked — see editorial
EPA/dropback YoY stability (r)
~0.65
Passer rating YoY predictability (r)
~0.5

Commentary

EPA per dropback strips away volume inflation. A QB throwing short, high-percentage passes on a run-first offense can post respectable yardage totals while generating negative EPA, meaning he is actually hurting his team's scoring probability. For fantasy purposes, EPA correlates tightly with touchdown production potential, which is what ultimately separates QB1s from streamers.

Conclusion

Use EPA per dropback as your primary QB evaluation lens in both redraft and dynasty. It is more predictive than any traditional stat and identifies undervalued QBs before the market adjusts.

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