Scores and schedule

Each game starts from a pregame prior: the projected margin from opponent-adjusted per-play offense and defense ratings, with garbage time discounted. In-game, the number updates with score, clock and possession. Sharp moves reflect game leverage, not a new view of the teams.

Win probability is odds, not a call. An 80% favorite loses one game in five. After the final the number freezes at the result so in-game reads stay reviewable.