Draft pick value

A pick is worth the expected value of the best player still available when it comes up. Player value is value over replacement, the same currency as the rankings and trade calculator. Availability is a bell curve around live ADP that widens later in the draft.

Why late rounds aren't worth zero

Each player is priced on the seasons where he beats replacement, not his median outcome, because a bench pick can be cut. Over six seasons of results, picks past the startable cut returned about 7% of what the 1.01 returned, concentrated in about one pick in ten.

Why it differs from other charts

Most pick charts are a hand-drawn decay curve or a repurposed NFL trade chart. This one follows this season's board and ADP. It comes out steep early and flat late.

Which seat is best

In a plain snake the early slots come out slightly ahead. Third-round reversal shrinks the gap.

Limits

Priced for 12-team PPR with a standard lineup; superflex and TE premium differ. Availability treats players as independent, so it understates position runs. The late-round spread was fitted at three league sizes and interpolated. Values are only as good as preseason projections.