Articles
Fantasy football analytics, engine internals, dynasty research, and weekly columns.
What NFL betting markets price correctly (and the one thing they don't)
We stress-tested every popular angle — travel, rest, time zones, prime time, QB injuries, divisional rematches. Almost all of it is already in the line.
Do NFL sportsbooks get sharper through the season?
Closing lines are already accurate in Week 1 — but one early-season bias is real, and it's gone by December
Bayesian opponent-adjusted FVOA: stabler week-to-week NFL rankings
Why partial pooling makes a Chiefs garbage-time scramble count for less
Catching injury noise: empirical-Bayes smoothing for NFL snap shares
Why one 95% week shouldn't change your read on a 42% player
Five QB masterpieces of 2025: above-expected against elite defenses
What our Bayesian EPA model says about the year's most defense-proof performances.
The path to #1: how each top-12 PPR player wins the season
Twelve overall players, twelve distinct routes to the fantasy crown.
Target Share as a Proxy for WR Value
Volume beats efficiency in fantasy scoring
Opportunity Share for Running Backs
Carries + targets reveal true backfield value
The rise of the 'unathletic' athlete
Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Brunson, and Nikola Jokić ran slow, jumped short, or slid in the draft — and dominate anyway. Here's the trait the stopwatch can't time.
Air Yards and Receiver Separation
Measuring true receiving upside before the catch
QB-Receiver Dependency Modeling
How QB quality multiplies receiver fantasy value
Expected Points Added for QB Evaluation
Context-neutral quarterback performance measurement
What actually predicts a running back's next season
Volume beats efficiency, schedule strength matters, age cliffs are real, and committees crush ceilings. The five signals our RB rankings use.
When NFL fantasy players actually peak
RBs cliff at 26. WRs hold through 30. QBs stay flat to 35. The 'WRs peak at 38' stat you sometimes hear is fake.
Stop averaging the last three years for every position
RBs are last-year animals. QBs and DBs need a longer view. The 'three-year average' shortcut is wrong everywhere.
Why most fantasy TEs are a coin flip
Tight ends sort cleanly into two groups. One group is reliable. The other will torch your roster all year.
Snap Count and Route Participation Trending
An early-warning system for breakouts and busts
Welcome to The Box Score
The fast trade calculator + manager grader for ESPN fantasy football. Here's the playbook.
How the Trade Finder ranks suggestions
Mutual SLEP gain, fairness gap, package penalty, partner propensity. The full scoring model.
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Projections
Opponent defensive quality as a fantasy multiplier
Dynasty Trade Value Modeling
Age curves, positional scarcity, and contract windows
Red Zone Target Share and TD Regression
Identifying touchdown thieves and touchdown due
Mutual-Benefit Trade Algorithm Modeling
Finding trades where both managers genuinely win