Some offenses feast on bad defenses and shrink against good ones. We measured it for all 32 teams — then backtested whether the profile predicts playoffs, wins, or anything at all.
Film room
Fantasy analytics, model notes and dynasty research.
- Bayesian opponent-adjusted FVOA: stabler week-to-week NFL rankingsWhy partial pooling makes a Chiefs garbage-time scramble count for less
- Catching injury noise: empirical-Bayes smoothing for NFL snap sharesWhy one 95% week shouldn't change your read on a 42% player
- Five QB masterpieces of 2025: above-expected against elite defensesWhat our Bayesian EPA model says about the year's most defense-proof performances.
- The path to #1: how each top-12 PPR player wins the seasonTwelve overall players, twelve distinct routes to the fantasy crown.
- Target Share as a Proxy for WR ValueVolume beats efficiency in fantasy scoring
- Opportunity Share for Running BacksCarries + targets reveal true backfield value
- The rise of the 'unathletic' athletePuka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Brunson, and Nikola Jokić ran slow, jumped short, or slid in the draft, and dominate anyway. Here's the trait the stopwatch can't time.
- Air Yards and Receiver SeparationMeasuring true receiving upside before the catch
- QB-Receiver Dependency ModelingHow QB quality multiplies receiver fantasy value
- Expected Points Added for QB EvaluationContext-neutral quarterback performance measurement
- What actually predicts a running back's next seasonVolume beats efficiency, schedule strength matters, age cliffs are real, and committees crush ceilings. The five signals our RB rankings use.
- When NFL fantasy players actually peakRBs cliff at 26. WRs hold through 30. QBs stay flat to 35. The 'WRs peak at 38' stat you sometimes hear is fake.
- Stop averaging the last three years for every positionRBs are last-year animals. QBs and DBs need a longer view. The 'three-year average' shortcut is wrong everywhere.
- Why most fantasy TEs are a coin flipTight ends sort cleanly into two groups. One group is reliable. The other will torch your roster all year.
- Snap Count and Route Participation TrendingAn early-warning system for breakouts and busts
- Welcome to The Box ScoreThe fast trade calculator + manager grader for ESPN fantasy football. Here's the playbook.
- How the Trade Finder ranks suggestionsMutual SLEP gain, fairness gap, package penalty, partner propensity. The full scoring model.
- Strength of Schedule Adjusted ProjectionsOpponent defensive quality as a fantasy multiplier
- Dynasty Trade Value ModelingAge curves, positional scarcity, and contract windows
- Red Zone Target Share and TD RegressionIdentifying touchdown thieves and touchdown due
- Mutual-Benefit Trade Algorithm ModelingFinding trades where both managers genuinely winThe Box Score platform trade acceptance rate~76% on mutual-benefit suggestions