THE BOX SCORE

Target Share as a Proxy for WR Value

Volume beats efficiency in fantasy scoring

By Nick1 min read

Thesis

Target share, a receiver's percentage of team targets, is a more stable and predictive metric for fantasy output than yards or touchdowns, which regress heavily to the mean.

Hypothesis

Receivers with 25%+ target share on their team will outperform their ADP in fantasy leagues at a higher rate than receivers selected based on prior-year yardage rank.

Data

This week's target share leader
—
Target share YoY correlation (r)
~0.7
TD YoY correlation (r)
~0.3

Commentary

Touchdowns are notoriously fluky: the correlation between a receiver's TD total one year and the next is weak (~0.3). Target share is far stickier, making it the single best predictor of fantasy floor. In dynasty formats, target share trajectory matters even more than current production: a young receiver gaining share is often more valuable than a veteran holding steady.

Conclusion

Build your WR room around target share leaders and treat touchdowns as upside variance, not baseline expectation. High-target-share receivers on pass-heavy teams are the safest floor plays in any format.

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