THE BOX SCORE

Red Zone Target Share and TD Regression

Identifying touchdown thieves and touchdown due

By Nick1 min read

Thesis

Touchdowns are the highest-variance component of fantasy scoring, but red zone target share and rushing attempts inside the 10 are stable metrics that predict whose TD rate will regress up or down.

Hypothesis

Players with red zone target or carry share in the top quartile but TD totals in the bottom half of their positional tier are underpriced and will outperform ADP as their TD rate normalizes.

Data

This week's red zone target share leader
Not yet tracked — see editorial
Red zone usage explains TD variance
~60%
RB TD YoY correlation
~0.35

Commentary

A receiver with 25% red zone target share but only 4 TDs is almost certainly due for positive regression. A receiver with 10% red zone share but 9 TDs is a sell-high candidate. This asymmetry creates constant buy-low and sell-high windows throughout the season if you are tracking usage data rather than just the scoresheet.

Conclusion

Red zone usage data is the most actionable weekly analytics tool in fantasy football. The gap between red zone share and TD totals tells you exactly who to buy and who to sell before the rest of your league figures it out.

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